I could not agree more that the UK government's higher education policy is chaotic. It is direction-less. It is disjointed and it is short sighted.
The purpose of the non-confidence vote is to convince the government to reverse some of the decisions it has made with regard to higher education funding. However, Oxford's Congregation members (and the universities to follow in the wake of Oxford's no-confidence motion. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-13627420) may not have the impact on government policy they are hoping to inspire.
The problem with the vote is expecting the government to (a) see Oxford Congregation as a threat and (b) to expect the public to be drawn to academics' opinion that government policy on higher education is poor. The unfortunate reality that Congregation only represents the academics of Oxford makes this non-confidence vote smack of self interest. Student support of the vote runs the same risk. Higher education does not affect everyone equally - those that access universities are, largely, from upper-upper middle classes. Oxford's Congregation vote can easily be seen as a group of privileged people complaining the government is threatening their privilege. Hardly inspiring public support.
If anything, it will suggest an arrogance that many already associate with university academics: "agree with me because I know best". There are other, and potentially more effective, strategies to convince the public of the higher education cause. These alternate strategies could have focused on access to higher education (please see my article on the cancellation of the AimHigher program, http://www.universityaffairs.ca/missing-the-target.aspx).
If the government takes any action, such as forcing David Willets to resign, it will likely to be to install a government 'strongman' into the post to bring the higher education sector to heel. From the government's perspective, this vote of non-confidence (and those to follow at other universities) is only evidence Willets hasn't been tough enough on the university sector (case in point, the shockingly ill-advised comments by Willets's former tutor at Christ Church College, Oxford http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8557553/David-Willetts-former-economics-tutor-backs-calls-for-his-resignation.html). If Willets does resign, he's not going to be replaced with a kinder, gentler Secretary of State. It will signal a crack down.
The best case scenario of Congregation's no-confidence vote, in all likelihood, is that the government does not respond at all.
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